Oman
Oman exhibits economic metamorphosis: non-oil sectors grew to 73.3% of GDP by 2025, with Vision 2040 delivering diversification that earned investment-grade credit rating.
Oman is executing a controlled metamorphosis from hydrocarbon dependence to diversified economy—and unlike most Gulf states, it appears to be succeeding. The non-oil sector's share of GDP reached 73.3% by late 2025, up from minority status just years earlier. Oil activities actually contracted 2.7% in 2024 while non-oil grew 3.9%, led by manufacturing (8.3% growth), construction, and services. Vision 2040's first implementation phase (2021-2025) delivered what its architects promised: fiscal sustainability, improved credit ratings, and reduced public debt to safe levels.
The sultanate's approach differs from neighbors in one key respect: it accepts pain. Oman will become the first Gulf country to impose personal income tax (5% on earnings above $109,000 annually) starting 2028. This represents metabolic adaptation—diversifying not just revenue sources but the social contract itself. FDI stock grew 18% in 2024, exceeding 30.3 billion rials by mid-2025, as investors recognized a genuine transition rather than mere announcements.
Geographically, Oman sits at a choke point: the Strait of Hormuz's southern shore, through which 20% of global oil transits. Yet unlike volatile neighbors, Oman cultivates strategic neutrality—maintaining relations with Iran, Israel, and everyone between. This diplomatic niche mirrors biological mutualism: the country provides back-channel services no one else can, making itself valuable to all sides. Moody's upgraded Oman to investment grade (Baa3) in 2025, betting the metamorphosis will complete. The 11th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) aims to build on gains while Oman's Green Hydrogen Strategy positions it as a net-zero economy by 2050—a full ecosystem transition from extractive to renewable.