Namibia

Namibia emerged from one of history's most brutal genocides to become Africa's most stable democracy, and now sits atop resource deposits that could transform it from quiet prosperity to genuine wealth. The same Namib Desert that helped kill 80% of the Herero people between 1904 and 1908 may power Europe's hydrogen economy by 2030.

The German Empire claimed this territory in 1884, attracted by its position between British-controlled Cape Colony and Portuguese Angola, and by reports of diamonds and copper. Significant settlement began only after mineral discoveries: diamonds near Lüderitz in 1908, copper at Tsumeb in 1906. But Germany wanted the land for settlers, not just extraction. When the Herero people revolted in January 1904, General Lothar von Trotha issued the Vernichtungsbefehl—an extermination order unprecedented in colonial warfare. German forces drove the Herero into the Omaheke Desert, poisoned wells, shot those who tried to return. Between 40,000 and 80,000 Herero died; half the Nama followed. The 20th century's first genocide left survivors as laborers in a colony designed around their near-elimination.

South African troops seized the territory in 1915, and the League of Nations mandate after World War I formalized what became apartheid in all but name. The UN renamed the country Namibia in 1968; independence came only in 1990, after a guerrilla war that cost South Africa roughly $1 billion annually by the late 1980s—comparable to Namibia's entire GDP. The new nation inherited extreme inequality, racialized land ownership, and an economy dependent on diamonds, uranium, beef, and fish—all in decline.

What followed was Africa's most understated development success. Namibia maintained peaceful democratic transitions, prudent fiscal management, and stable institutions while neighbors struggled. Today it ranks second globally in uranium production (11% of world output), with Paladin Energy restarting the Langer Heinrich mine in March 2024 after spot prices hit $106 per pound—the highest in sixteen years. Diamond production continues from the Orange River mouth, where De Beers operates marine mining vessels.

But the transformation emerging now dwarfs historical mining. In 2022, TotalEnergies' Venus-1X and Shell's Graff-1X struck oil in the Orange Basin—over 11 billion barrels in place across multiple discoveries. TotalEnergies is spending 30% of its billion-dollar 2024 exploration budget in Namibia; Venus production of 150,000-180,000 barrels daily could begin by 2029, adding 20% to GDP. Baker Hughes and Halliburton opened bases in Swakopmund and Walvis Bay in 2024. A planned NAD 40 billion ($2.1 billion) port expansion will transform logistics.

Simultaneously, Namibia positions for post-oil energy. The Daures Green Hydrogen Village launched pilot production in Q1 2025, targeting 180,000 tonnes of green hydrogen annually. Germany designated Hyphen's ammonia project (2 million tonnes per year) as a "strategic foreign project" in March 2024. Total green hydrogen investment commitments exceed $10 billion through 2034.

The 2026 trajectory sees Namibia approaching the investment decisions that will determine its next half-century. Final investment decision on Venus is expected 2025-2026. Hydrogen projects seek offtake agreements with European utilities. The Welwitschia plant in the Namib Desert survives for 1,500 years by capturing fog moisture in one of Earth's driest environments—Namibia's economy is developing similar adaptations, harvesting resources from sun, wind, and deep ocean that its colonial geography once made worthless.