Cabo Delgado Province

Cabo Delgado exists because the Rovuma River exists—and beneath it lies what TotalEnergies calculated as 65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, enough to transform Mozambique into one of the world's largest LNG exporters. But resource abundance created its own predators. The Mwani and Makua populations along this coast, predominantly Muslim and historically connected to Swahili trading networks stretching back centuries, watched as Maputo's southern-based FRELIMO elite captured the LNG promises. When IS-Mozambique (locally called al-Shabaab) launched its insurgency in 2017, it found fertile recruitment grounds among those excluded from the coming boom.

The conflict has claimed over 4,000 lives and displaced approximately 800,000 people since 2017—nearly half the province's population. TotalEnergies declared force majeure in April 2021 after insurgents attacked the town of Palma, just 10 kilometers from its $20 billion Mozambique LNG project. Construction halted with the project 25% complete. The Montepuez Ruby Mining operation, a joint venture between Gemfields and the Mozambican government, continued extraction of what became the world's most productive ruby deposit, but even it faced attacks.

Rwanda deployed 2,000 troops in 2021, funded partly by the European Union, and succeeded where SADC's regional mission failed. By 2023, attacks had declined enough for tentative security assessments. In March 2025, the US EXIM Bank released $4.7 billion in frozen loans for the LNG project, and TotalEnergies requested lifting force majeure. But early 2024 saw renewed attacks in eastern districts—Macomia, Chiure, Mecúfi, Quissanga—displacing another 100,000 civilians. The insurgency has also begun using Nampula Province as a recruiting ground, potentially extending the conflict zone.

By 2026, Cabo Delgado tests whether resource extraction can proceed alongside insurgency—or whether the LNG billions require the kind of security that 2,000 Rwandan soldiers cannot guarantee.