Gagauzia

Gagauzia demonstrates how political signaling can diverge dramatically from economic reality. This autonomous Turkic-speaking region of 103,000 people has been self-governing since 1994, yet 75% of residents believe Russia is their primary trade partner—when the actual figures show companies export just 2% to Russia and 49% to the European Union. The perception gap reveals how narrative can override material interest.

The autonomy is poor, dependent on subsidies from Moldova's central budget and income from agricultural and labor exports to the EU. Gagauz workers frequently obtain Romanian citizenship to access EU labor markets, while the number working in Russia steadily declines. Economic ties to Russia were marginal even before Ukraine's war and are now 'almost nonexistent,' yet pro-Russian political entrepreneurs have captured local power. In May 2023, Ilan Shor's proxy Evghenia Guțul won election as Başkan (governor).

The 2024-2025 period brought rapid political collapse. Guțul visited Putin in Moscow in March 2024, prompting EU sanctions against her in October 2024. By August 2025, she was sentenced to seven years in prison; former parliamentary speaker Dmitry Konstantinov received twelve years for corruption. Some analysts describe 2025 as marking 'the quiet but irreversible end of Moscow's post-Soviet empire' in Moldova. Most Gagauz harbor no separatist ambitions—they seek autonomy within Moldova, not secession. The region illustrates how costly political signaling toward Russia ultimately collapsed under the weight of economic integration with the EU.