Administrative-Territorial Units of the Left Bank of the Dniester

Transnistria demonstrates the metabolic fragility of economies built on subsidized inputs. For over fifteen years, this breakaway region accumulated $9 billion in unpaid gas bills to Gazprom while using free Russian gas to power two pillars: the Moldova Steel Works in Rîbnița, producing $500 million in annual exports (40-50% of GDP), and the Moldavskaya GRES power plant, which supplied 70% of mainland Moldova's electricity. Like giant tube worms that thrive only where hydrothermal vents provide chemical energy, Transnistria's industrial economy existed only because of a constant flow of free gas.

When Russia's gas transit agreement with Ukraine expired on January 1, 2025, the metabolic subsidy ended abruptly. Industrial output collapsed by 70% within weeks. The steel works and Tirotex textile plants suspended operations. The power plant switched to emergency solid fuel. A state of economic emergency, first declared in December 2024, has been extended five times. The EU provided €64 million in emergency aid, with €20 million specifically for Transnistria, enabling Moldova to purchase gas from European markets to cover 50% of demand.

The 2024 economy contracted 5.4%. Exports dropped 60% compared to January 2024. Nearly 80% of Transnistrian exports had gone to EU markets—a paradox where Russian subsidies enabled competitive undercutting of European producers. Without free gas, analysts predict population exodus, leaving mostly pensioners whose pensions Moscow pays. The region exemplifies how source-sink dynamics create apparent prosperity that collapses when the source disappears.