Tabasco

Tabasco leads Mexico in onshore crude extraction but faces accelerating decline—production fell from 511,000 b/d (July 2023) to 410,000 b/d (November 2024), a 101,000 b/d drop. National Pemex production hit its lowest since 1979 at 1.407 million b/d in November 2024, down 10.2% year-over-year. The state benefited enormously from AMLO's administration pouring investment into Pemex and the Olmeca refinery, but analysts predict a 'hangover' as the Sheinbaum government reduces oil sector support. The new Olmeca refinery hasn't reached full capacity, so manufacturing gains can't offset construction slowdown and production decline. State job losses led Mexico in 2024, driven by Pemex spending contraction. With 7.5% budget cuts for 2025 and no new exploration strategy, Tabasco's petroleum-dependent economy faces structural decline. Several U.S. oil field service companies have paused operations due to Pemex nonpayment, constraining technical capacity for production maintenance.