Sinaloa
Mexico's #1 tomato producer (19-22% of output, 80%+ exported to US); 2025 drought + 20.91% US anti-dumping duty; 70% under protected agriculture.
Sinaloa is Mexico's leading tomato producer, supplying 19-22% of national production and exporting over 80% of its December-April crop to the United States. Mexico led world tomato exports in 2023 ($3 billion), and in 2024 exported 2.06 million metric tons valued at $3.34 billion. Around 70% of Mexican tomatoes now grow under protected agriculture (greenhouses and shade houses), with companies like Del Campo in Culiacán producing 90% under cover.
But 2025 brought dual crises. Severe drought—classified as extreme to exceptional—persists across Sinaloa, limiting irrigation and discouraging new planting. The fall-winter production cycle dropped 45% due to water shortages. Then on April 14, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced termination of the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement, imposing a 20.91% anti-dumping duty effective July 14, 2025. Exports to the US are forecast to fall to 1.83 million metric tons ($2.98 billion).
By 2026, Sinaloa will test whether protected agriculture can offset climate and trade shocks. If greenhouse investment continues and alternative markets absorb diverted production, the state could maintain agricultural leadership. If drought intensifies and tariffs reduce investment, Mexico's tomato capital may face structural decline.