Mexico City

Mexico City generates 3.6 trillion pesos annually—by far Mexico's largest economic output—yet faces turbulence as nearshoring momentum meets geopolitical uncertainty. In 2024, the capital attracted $14.4 billion in FDI, driven primarily by reinvested earnings. Its workforce of 4.89 million (47% women, 53% men) earns an average monthly salary of 6,430 pesos, reflecting the premium urban labor commands.

The nearshoring wave that promised to transform Mexico has produced mixed results. Foreign companies announced plans to invest approximately $65 billion in Mexican projects during 2024, following $110 billion in pledges the previous year. Major investments include Foxconn's Guadalajara factory for Nvidia superchips, $15 billion in LNG projects, and Amazon Web Services' $5 billion Querétaro data centers. The Business Council for Foreign Trade projects 6% export growth in 2025 with total exports reaching $700 billion.

Yet the IMF forecasts only 1.3% growth in 2025—well below Latin American averages—with potential contraction of 0.3% in a pessimistic scenario. The 25% tariff threats from Washington pose existential risk: estimates suggest full implementation would cause 1.9% economic contraction. By 2026, analysts anticipate slight reacceleration as private investment linked to relocation materializes. Mexico City, alongside Jalisco, Nuevo León, and Estado de México, remains positioned to grow above national average, with tourism services and consumer spending as anchors—but the trajectory depends on trade policy decisions made in Washington, not Mexico City.