Campeche
13.8% industrial decline (May 2025); oil production down 9% YoY to 1.3M b/d; Pemex $98.8B debt; 7.5% budget cut; fields declining 100k b/d annually.
Campeche contains most of Mexico's mature, declining offshore oil fields—a classic case of resource senescence. Industrial activity dropped 13.8% in May 2025 (versus -8.2% national mining contraction), while oil prices fell 20% year-over-year. Pemex's production collapsed from the 2004 national peak of 3.9 million barrels/day to roughly 1.3 million by May 2025 (9% annual decline). The historically prolific Sureste basin fields now require replacement from newer developments. Budget cuts (7.5% reduction for 2025) and $98.8 billion in Pemex debt constrain exploration. Analysts project 100,000 b/d annual production losses beginning 2025, with no major discoveries offsetting decline. Grupo México halted four offshore platforms due to Pemex nonpayment. Campeche's economy faces a forced metabolic transition as petroleum revenues evaporate without replacement industries.