Mauritania

Mauritania represents adaptive radiation in economic development—a desert nation simultaneously exploiting iron ore, fishing, natural gas, and green hydrogen in ways that could transform its GDP by 50-60% within a decade. First gas flowed from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project on January 2, 2025; first LNG exports followed in April. A country that was 90% nomadic at independence in 1960 is becoming a significant energy producer.

The Sahara that covers 90% of Mauritania has always been avenue rather than barrier. The Almoravid movement emerged here in the 11th century, warrior monks who united Berber confederations and built an empire stretching from the Sahel to Iberia. Their legacy connected sub-Saharan Africa with the Mediterranean through caravan routes where gold, salt, and slaves moved north while manufactured goods traveled south. Mauritania occupied the western anchor of these routes—a transit zone between worlds rather than destination in itself.

France colonized the territory in 1904, connecting their West African possessions with North Africa, but exercised only nominal control over the interior. Colonial interest focused on the trade routes and coast; vast desert regions remained unreached by European authority until the 1950s. At independence on November 28, 1960, Nouakchott existed as a village—chosen as capital for a nation where nearly everyone still moved with their herds. The 1970s brought crisis: Mauritania invaded the southern third of Western Sahara in 1975, but Polisario guerrilla raids against the iron ore railway and Zouerate mines threatened economic collapse. A 1978 coup ended the disastrous expansion.

What emerged was an economy built on extraction from three frontiers: the iron deposits at Zouerate (Africa's second-largest producer), the fishing grounds off the Banc d'Arguin (among the world's richest), and gold deposits that now account for 39% of exports. SNIM hit record iron ore output of 14 million tonnes in recent years; the plan is to double capacity to 45 million tonnes annually. Fishing generates 19% of exports and 20% of budget revenue, though overfishing threatens sustainability. Mining overall contributes 24% of GDP and 76% of exports.

But the adaptive radiation—simultaneous exploitation of multiple resource frontiers—accelerates with energy. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim gas project, shared with Senegal, will generate $19 billion in government revenue over thirty years and $500 million annually in immediate exports. The undeveloped BirAllah field holds 60-80 trillion cubic feet of additional gas. Meanwhile, the Green Hydrogen Code adopted in October 2024 enables projects that could transform Mauritania into Europe's hydrogen supplier: a $34 billion project with Conjuncta, Infinity, and Masdar targets 8 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually. President Ghazouani, re-elected in June 2024 with 56% of the vote, has aligned policy toward these investments.

The 2026 trajectory positions Mauritania at an inflection point. GDP growth projections of 4.2% (2024) and 5.5% (2025) understate the potential transformation. The 2025 Investment Code reforms aim to attract capital for hydrogen and downstream processing. AGOA trade preferences restored in January 2024 reopen American markets. The iron ore trains still run their 3-kilometer length from Zouerate to the coast, but the economy they symbolize—extraction and export of raw materials—may soon be joined by energy production at industrial scale. The desert that defined isolation may become the asset that powers European decarbonization.