Maldives

The Maldives represents island biogeography at its most precarious—1,192 coral islands averaging 1.5 meters above sea level, with an economy that has concentrated every vulnerability into a single point of failure. Tourism generates 60% of GDP when related sectors are included, with 90% of that infrastructure within 100 meters of shorelines that climate models project will increasingly flood. Yet debt, not seas, poses the more immediate extinction threat: public debt reached 127% of GDP in 2025, rising toward 135%, with a $500 million Sukuk repayment due in 2026 and reserves covering only 1.7 months of imports. The geopolitical balancing act adds complexity—$1.4 billion in Chinese Belt and Road loans created dependency that President Muizzu attempted to offset by demanding Indian troop withdrawal in 2024, only to seek a $400 million Indian currency swap by mid-2025 when reserves plummeted. Tourist arrivals hit records (one million by mid-2025), but average stays shortened from 7.6 to 6.8 days, reducing revenue per visitor. The Maldives imports 90% of its food, produces almost nothing beyond tourism services, and depends on foreign exchange flows that any shock—pandemic, climate event, debt crisis—can instantly interrupt. By 2026, the Sukuk comes due: either restructuring or rescue will reveal whether this island economy can avoid the extinction vortex.