Kiribati
Kiribati exhibits habitat-loss dynamics: 33 atolls under 2m elevation with 3.5M km² ocean EEZ face submersion while tuna revenues swing with La Niña migration patterns.
Kiribati represents what happens when an organism's habitat changes faster than it can adapt. This Pacific nation of 33 atoll islands, population 117,000, sits less than two meters above sea level—among the first territories climate change may render uninhabitable. IPCC projections indicate sea level rise of 0.44-0.76 meters by 2100; a worst-case scenario of 2 meters would submerge most of the nation's land.
The paradox: Kiribati controls one of Earth's richest ocean territories. Its Exclusive Economic Zone spans 3.5 million square kilometers—among the world's largest—with some of the most productive tuna fisheries on the planet. Fishing license revenues from foreign fleets drive the economy. But the fish don't belong to Kiribati; they migrate with ocean temperatures. During La Niña, warming water pushes tuna westward, collapsing catch volumes and national income. Climate change simultaneously threatens the land while making ocean resources more volatile.
In 2012, Kiribati's government purchased 22 square kilometers on Fiji's Vanua Levu island—an ark for citizens who may need to relocate. No nation has ever bought territory for climate evacuation before. The purchase acknowledges what few governments will state: some places may become uninhabitable within living memory.
Australia's $5.8 million climate security initiative (2023-2026) funds nature-based coastal protection. But the fundamental arithmetic remains: land below water cannot support population above it. Kiribati's future depends on variables—emission trajectories, ice sheet behavior, ocean chemistry—decided by nations producing the carbon it cannot control.