Homa Bay County
Lake Victoria fishing capital faces stock collapse—980 cages lead aquaculture transition targeting 300,000 tonnes by 2050. By 2026: cultivation replaces or collapse accelerates.
Homa Bay exists because Lake Victoria exists—Kenya's portion of Africa's largest lake defines this county's economy, culture, and challenges. The Luo people who settled these shores developed fishing traditions predating colonial contact; today's fish economy employs tens of thousands directly and supports entire supply chains of transporters, traders, and processors.
Yet the lake that gives is dying. Three decades ago, fishermen returned with abundant catches; today, nets often come up nearly empty. Nile perch introduction devastated native cichlids in the 1950s-60s; now overfishing, pollution, and climate change threaten even the introduced species. Fish kills have intensified: between 2020-2023, over 1.8 million tilapia died in 82 recorded events. Some species approach extinction while conflicts between Kenyan and Ugandan fishermen over remaining stocks escalate.
The November 2025 Fisheries and Aquaculture Development Policy represents the county's most ambitious response. Governor Gladys Wanga's administration targets increasing annual production from 37,000 to 300,000 metric tonnes by 2050—primarily through cage and pond aquaculture rather than wild harvest. The county already leads Lake Victoria's Kenyan shoreline with 980 fish cages, and KSh 1.5 billion in infrastructure investment—including the modern Homa Bay fish market serving 2,000 fishmongers daily—signals commitment to the transition.
The county exhibits classic resource depletion dynamics: overharvest crashes wild stocks, forcing transition to cultivation. By 2026, whether aquaculture expansion can replace collapsing wild fisheries before social disruption—unemployment, cross-border conflict, food insecurity—will determine if Homa Bay navigates or collapses through this transition.