Campania

Three million people live within 30 kilometers of Vesuvius—Europe's only active mainland volcano. The last major eruption killed 26 in 1944. The next will threaten 700,000 in the "red zone" with no realistic evacuation plan. They stay because volcanic soil grows crops nowhere else can match.

The Romans called it Campania felix—"fertile countryside." Vesuvius made it fertile. Two massive eruptions 35,000 and 12,000 years ago blanketed the region with thick tephra deposits that weathered into mineral-rich soil: potassium, magnesium, calcium. The Greeks founded Neapolis ("new city"—modern Naples) in the 6th century BC, recognizing the agricultural advantage. Pompeii and Herculaneum thrived on Vesuvius's slopes, trading wine and grain across the Mediterranean.

Then came AD 79. Vesuvius buried both cities in 24 hours, killing an estimated 16,000. Pliny the Younger documented the pyroclastic flows. The eruption left a 10-kilometer exclusion zone around the crater. Within a generation, people returned. The soil was too valuable to abandon.

The pattern repeated: eruptions in 1631 (4,000 dead), 1906 (100 dead), 1944 (26 dead). Each time, survivors rebuilt closer to the crater. By 2025, Naples anchors a metropolitan area of 3.1 million—Italy's third-largest city and most economically productive region in the South. The "red zone" extends 18 municipalities housing 700,000 people directly in the path of future pyroclastic flows.

Evacuation plans exist on paper: 72 hours to move 700,000 people before eruption. In practice, vulcanologists estimate 2 weeks of precursor signals—maybe. Traffic tests show the road network cannot evacuate the red zone in under a week. Residents know the math: you stay because leaving means abandoning livelihoods, property, and the most productive farmland in Southern Italy. Vesuvius's volcanic soil produces San Marzano tomatoes, Lacryma Christi wine, and yields that justify the existential risk.

Campania generates €109 billion GDP annually, driven by Naples's port (Mediterranean's second-largest container terminal), agriculture on volcanic soil, and tourism to Pompeii's ruins. The region exports the aesthetic of disaster—millions visit annually to see what happens when the volcano wins—while residents bet on delaying the next eruption another generation. Fruit, vegetables, tobacco, and grapes grow with yields no fertilizer elsewhere can match.

Vesuvius's seismic activity persists—minor earthquakes weekly, fumaroles venting constantly. Vulcanologists classify it as one of the world's most dangerous volcanoes: active, densely populated surround, explosive eruption history. The next major eruption is certain; the timeline is not. Campania's economy depends on 700,000 people accepting odds no actuary would underwrite: trading potential catastrophe for guaranteed fertility.