Iran

Iran's GDP has halved since 2010—from $600 billion to $356 billion—yet the country continues to export nearly 2 million barrels of oil daily through a shadow fleet of 1,500 tankers that change flags, disable tracking, and transfer cargo at sea. This is an economy in metabolic depression: reduced activity to survive conditions that would kill a less adapted organism.

The Persian Plateau made this persistence possible. The Zagros Mountains form a wall along the western border, separating Mesopotamia from the Iranian highlands and creating a natural fortress. For 2,500 years, empires have risen from this geography: Cyrus the Great's Achaemenid Empire stretched from the Balkans to India by 550 BCE; the Sasanians rivaled Rome for 400 years. The Royal Road that Darius built became the western spine of the Silk Road, making Persian cities—Isfahan, Tabriz, Tehran—way stations where East met West.

Oil transformed this ancient crossroads into a rentier state. Production began in 1908 at Masjed Soleyman—the first major strike in the Middle East. By the 1970s, Iran was the world's fourth-largest producer, and the Shah's modernization programs depended entirely on petroleum revenue. The 1979 Islamic Revolution swapped one form of concentrated power for another: the theocratic government inherited oil dependency while adding isolation. Four decades of sanctions have pushed the rial from 70 to over 1.4 million per dollar—a 20,000-fold collapse.

The Revolutionary Guard now controls an estimated 20-40% of the economy through construction, telecommunications, and oil smuggling networks. China absorbs 90% of Iran's crude exports at discounts of $7-8 per barrel. The IMF calculates Iran would need $163 oil to balance its budget—more than double current prices. Inflation runs above 40% officially, closer to 50% independently. Yet the regime endures, having constructed an alternative stable state: isolated, impoverished, but self-perpetuating.