Bali

Bali demonstrates how tourism monocultures can achieve remarkable scale while creating concentrated vulnerability. The island's economy grew 5.48% in 2024—outpacing Indonesia's 5.03% national average—driven by tourism that now represents 21.75% of provincial GDP. From January to November 2024, Bali received 5.78 million foreign arrivals, exceeding 2019's pre-pandemic total of 5.72 million. By October 2025, international visitors reached 5.89 million, up 11% year-on-year, with projections approaching 7 million by year-end.

Australia leads arrivals (147,581 in October 2025 alone), followed by China and India. Hotel occupancy reached 66.34% in September 2024, up from 2019 levels. The accommodation and food/beverage sector saw the largest job gains, with total employment reaching 2.67 million by August 2024—an increase of 47,600 year-on-year. President Prabowo Subianto has declared ambitions to make Bali 'the new Singapore or Hong Kong,' announcing plans for a North Bali International Airport to unlock investment in the island's underdeveloped north.

Yet COVID-19 exposed the fragility of tourism dependency. When international travel halted, Bali's economy collapsed faster than diversified provinces. The island now represents a natural experiment in recovery: structural improvement is evident, but the fundamental bet on tourism concentration remains unchanged. The same mechanisms that enable rapid growth—network effects from reputation, ecosystem engineering of cultural experiences—create single-point-of-failure risk when external shocks close borders.