Guinea

Guinea sits atop one-third to one-half of Earth's known bauxite reserves—the ore that becomes aluminum. This geological inheritance defines the country's economy, politics, and relationship with global industrial powers. The Fouta Djallon highlands also serve as West Africa's water tower, sourcing the Niger, Senegal, and Gambia rivers that sustain agriculture across the Sahel.

The region's pre-colonial history included the Mali and Songhai empires, trans-Saharan trade networks, and the Futa Jallon theocracy established by Fulani Muslims in the eighteenth century. France conquered the territory between 1849 and 1898, incorporating it into French West Africa. Colonial administrators developed the mining industry, extracting iron, gold, diamonds, and bauxite through infrastructure that served European industries rather than local development.

Ahmed Sékou Touré led Guinea to independence in 1958—the only French African colony to reject membership in the French Community through referendum. De Gaulle's government retaliated by withdrawing all French assistance overnight, even removing telephone wires. Touré aligned with the Soviet bloc, nationalizing industries and establishing authoritarian rule until his death in 1984. Lansana Conté's subsequent 24-year presidency brought economic liberalization but not democratic governance.

Bauxite remained the constant. International consortia developed deposits at Fria, Kindia, and Sangaredi in the Boké region, with the Guinean government holding major stakes. Two industrial railways connect mines to Conakry port. By 2024, Guinea had become the world's second-largest bauxite producer and the leading supplier to Chinese aluminum smelters—China imported 158.7 million tons that year, 70% from Guinea.

The military junta that seized power in 2021 inherited this resource economy. Despite regulatory uncertainties, bauxite exports hit a record 48.6 million tonnes in Q1 2025 alone—a 39% year-over-year increase. Full-year 2025 exports may reach 199 million tonnes, up from 146 million in 2024. The port of Conakry processed 312 bauxite vessels in Q1, demonstrating logistical capacity that global aluminum markets now depend upon.

But Simandou changes everything. This mountain range contains over 2 billion tonnes of high-grade iron ore—the world's largest known untapped deposit. After decades of delays, corruption scandals, and ownership disputes, the transport infrastructure is scheduled for completion by December 2025 with first ore exports following shortly. The government's Simandou 2040 plan projects $2 billion annual revenue from the mines alone; IMF modeling suggests GDP could be 26% higher by 2030 compared to a no-Simandou baseline.

A 2024 GDP rebasing revealed Guinea's economy at €37 billion ($40 billion)—51.2% larger than previous estimates—making it francophone West Africa's second-largest economy behind Côte d'Ivoire. Mining contributed 21% of GDP and over 90% of exports in 2022.

By 2026, Guinea will likely be shipping both record bauxite and first iron ore while the military government manages resource revenues that could transform or further entrench existing power structures. The geology guarantees global interest; governance determines whether extraction translates to development.