Tigray

Tigray region exemplifies how war can collapse a regional economy to pre-modern conditions. The 2020-2022 civil war between federal forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front killed an estimated 600,000 people and destroyed infrastructure across the northern highlands. By March 2025, only 27.5% of hospitals functioned, the judicial system had operated without funding since 2023, and a 2024 survey found 81% youth unemployment. UN assessments indicate 90% of Tigrayans face food insecurity.

The region demonstrates catastrophic succession dynamics: Tigray's textile industry and agricultural output once contributed to Ethiopia's growth model, but the war stripped assets through plunder and physical destruction. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reportedly stated that Mekelle, the regional capital, had been 'obliterated to the level of Beshasha'—a small underprivileged village. An estimated one million displaced people remain in limbo while schools stay closed.

The November 2022 peace agreement brought hope for reconstruction, but political instability has prevented recovery. In March 2025, violent clashes forced interim leader Getachew Reda to flee to Addis Ababa as TPLF-loyal forces seized control of Mekelle. A new civic coalition has emerged arguing that neither the federal government nor the TPLF can lead Tigray toward security or reconstruction. The region's trajectory illustrates how conflict creates self-reinforcing cycles of displacement, economic collapse, and renewed violence.