Ethiopia

Ethiopia is Africa's oldest independent nation and one of the world's most ancient continuous civilizations—yet in 2025 it faces the same existential question it faced 3,000 years ago: how does a highland empire survive when it loses access to the sea? Since Eritrea's independence in 1993, landlocked Ethiopia has paid roughly $1.5 billion annually in port fees to Djibouti. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed calls restoring Red Sea access "existential"; his officials have floated taking Eritrea's port of Assab by force.

The Aksumite Empire (4th century BCE to 10th century CE) built Ethiopia's original greatness. From its capital at Aksum in the northern highlands, the empire controlled trade routes linking Rome, India, and Africa's interior through the Red Sea port of Adulis. Aksumite merchants traded ivory, gold, and spices; Aksumite engineers created a unique written script (Ge'ez, still the Ethiopian Orthodox Church's liturgical language); Aksumite kings converted to Christianity in the 4th century under King Ezana, making Ethiopia one of the world's first Christian states. When the Islamic conquests cut off Adulis, Aksumite power collapsed—but the highland Christian kingdom endured.

The Solomonic dynasty, founded in 1270 when Yekuno Amlak overthrew the Zagwe rulers, claimed descent from King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba. Though the genealogy was mythological, the legitimation was effective: Solomonic emperors ruled until 1974, over seven centuries of continuous dynastic authority. The empire expanded and contracted, faced Muslim invasions, Portuguese interventions, and regional warlords. But it never fell to colonial conquest. When Italy attempted to establish a protectorate in 1895, Emperor Menelik II's armies destroyed the Italian forces at the Battle of Adwa (1896)—the first major African victory over a European colonial power and a moment that still defines Ethiopian national identity.

Italy returned in 1935, when Mussolini's forces invaded with chemical weapons, driving Emperor Haile Selassie into exile. The occupation lasted only until 1941, when British-led forces liberated the country. Selassie's post-war reign (1941-1974) brought modernization and international prestige—he founded the Organization of African Unity, headquartered in Addis Ababa—but also repression, inequality, and catastrophic failure to address the 1973 famine that killed 200,000. In 1974, the Derg military junta overthrew Selassie; his death in custody (likely murder) ended the Solomonic dynasty. Mengistu Haile Mariam's Marxist-Leninist state brought land reform, the Red Terror campaign that killed tens of thousands, and a civil war that continued until the Derg's collapse in 1991.

The current configuration—federal Ethiopia minus Eritrea, which won independence in 1993—has produced thirty years of attempted development alongside recurring conflict. The Tigray War (2020-2022) caused approximately 600,000 deaths from fighting, famine, and healthcare collapse; 5.1 million were displaced. The November 2022 peace deal with the Tigray People's Liberation Front ended the worst fighting, but in March 2025 TPLF-linked forces seized Mekelle, the regional capital. The Amhara region's Fano militias and the Oromia region's Oromo Liberation Army continue insurgencies against the federal government.

Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for making peace with Eritrea, has pivoted to ambitious development. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was inaugurated in July 2025 despite Egyptian and Sudanese opposition. The birr was floated, the banking sector opened, a stock exchange launched—reforms that secured a $3.4 billion IMF bailout. Plans include Africa's largest airport and a nuclear power plant. Addis Ababa has received billions in beautification: parks, museums, bike lanes, conference centers.

Yet Ethiopia in 2025 faces potential war on multiple fronts. Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of a "long-brewing war agenda" to seize Red Sea ports; Ethiopia claims Eritrea supports rebel groups. Military mobilization along the border increases conflict risk. Egypt has signed security pacts with Somalia and Eritrea, exploiting Ethiopia's regional tensions. A nation of 126 million—Africa's second-largest population—remains landlocked, dependent on neighbors for maritime access, and fractured by ethnic insurgencies that federal structures have not resolved.

Through 2026, the question is whether Ethiopia can develop fast enough to outrun its conflicts—or whether the dream of Red Sea access will trigger another catastrophic war.