Ida-Viru County
Estonia's northeastern industrial region with world's largest oil shale deposits, facing energy transition amid Russian-speaking majority.
Ida-Viru County is Estonia's rust belt—the northeastern industrial region where Soviet-era oil shale extraction and chemical production created an economy now facing painful transition. The county generates 6% of Estonian GDP but faces declining industries, Russian-speaking population concentration, and proximity to an increasingly hostile border.
Oil shale mining historically defined the region. Estonia possesses the world's largest commercial oil shale deposits; Ida-Viru hosts the extraction and processing infrastructure. But climate policy pressures, declining competitiveness, and environmental concerns drive gradual phase-out. The EU Just Transition Fund provides support similar to Poland's coal regions.
The Russian-speaking majority (over 70%) creates integration challenges unique in Estonia. Soviet-era industrial workers and their descendants maintain distinct cultural and linguistic identity. Narva, directly on the Russian border, faces security concerns that intensified after 2022.
The biological pattern is industrial succession under external pressure: Ida-Viru must transform from resource extraction toward new economic activities while managing demographic and geopolitical constraints that complicate transition.