Equatorial Guinea

Equatorial Guinea is Africa's only Spanish-speaking country—and the world's most extreme case study in resource curse dynamics. Since oil was discovered in 1995, GDP has increased over 5,000 percent. Yet more than half the population lives in poverty while the president's son faces asset seizures in the US, France, and UK for laundering billions. The Obiang family has ruled since 1968; the oil revenues belong to them.

The Bubi people inhabited Bioko Island (then Fernando Pó) for centuries before Portuguese explorers arrived in 1471. The Fang people dominated the mainland, having migrated south from central Africa in waves. Spain acquired the territories through the 1778 Treaty of El Pardo, but effective colonization came late. By 1926, when Spain unified the territory as Spanish Guinea, the administration had institutionalized a racially stratified society where plantation profits flowed exclusively to Spanish settlers. Because Bubi islanders resisted plantation work, the colonial administration imported tens of thousands of contract laborers from Liberia and Nigeria—demographic engineering whose effects persist in ethnic tensions today.

Independence came on October 12, 1968, and immediately devolved into nightmare. Francisco Macías Nguema, the first president, established one of Africa's most brutal dictatorships. His regime specifically targeted intellectuals, the educated, and the Bubi minority. Between 20,000 and 80,000 citizens were executed or disappeared. One-third of the population fled. Macías earned the title "The Butcher of Equatorial Guinea." On August 3, 1979, his nephew Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo—former director of the notorious Black Beach prison—led the coup that overthrew and executed him. Obiang promised reform but continued authoritarian rule; at 82, he is now the world's longest-serving head of state.

Oil discovery in 1995 transformed the economic calculus. Production began in 1996; by 2004, Equatorial Guinea had become Africa's third-largest oil producer, with GDP per capita soaring past European levels on paper. The wealth concentration was total. A 2017 French court convicted Obiang's son Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue (the vice president) of embezzlement, confiscating €33 million in assets acquired on an official salary of $80,000. The US Department of Justice seized $30.7 million of his assets in 2014 and another $25.6 million in 2020. His collection included a $35 million Malibu mansion, a Gulfstream jet, and Michael Jackson memorabilia.

The extraction model was never sustainable. The World Bank and IMF cut aid programs in 1993 over corruption and mismanagement—before the oil even arrived. Now the oil is leaving. Overall crude production has dropped to roughly one-fifth of its peak. Oil and gas still account for 80% of export revenues and 50% of GDP, but reserves are depleting. GDP growth is forecast at -1.2% through 2027. Government revenues fell 15% in 2024 as corporate taxes from oil companies declined. By 2021, half of Equatorial Guinea's GDP was owed to China, which props up the regime with loans requiring no questions about corruption or human rights.

The Fang majority (80% of the population) dominates political life, while the indigenous Bubi (6%) face systematic discrimination unless connected to the ruling party. Traditionally, the prime minister has been Bubi—a token representation that changes nothing about power distribution. The regime maintains control through patronage networks funded by diminishing oil revenues and Chinese credit.

Through 2026, Equatorial Guinea faces an existential transition. The hydrocarbon sector continues declining; non-oil alternatives remain undeveloped; structural reforms have stalled. Vice President Obiang Mangue, despite international sanctions, appears positioned to continue the dynasty. The nation must convince investors of sustainable appeal while its oil depletes, its debts mount, and its ruling family remains under investigation on multiple continents. The resource curse's terminal phase has begun.