Aswan Governorate
Ethiopia completed GERD filling (64 billion cubic meters) in 2024 while Egypt's High Aswan Dam remains full—but no binding water-sharing agreement exists, leaving coexistence one drought away from crisis.
Aswan Governorate controls Egypt's hydrological lifeline—the High Aswan Dam that impounds Lake Nasser and regulates Nile flows to 96 million downstream inhabitants. Built 1960-1970, the dam enabled year-round irrigation, eliminated flood variability, and generated hydroelectric power. But upstream, Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) now challenges Egyptian water security.
Ethiopia completed GERD's initial filling in summer 2024, retaining 49.3 billion cubic meters at 625 meters elevation. The fifth filling began July 2024, targeting 64 billion cubic meters. By October 2024, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced construction complete. Despite Egyptian protests to the UN Security Council, negotiations remain deadlocked.
The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement allocated Egypt 55.5 billion cubic meters annually—an accord Ethiopia never signed. GERD's reservoir could hold 74 billion cubic meters, theoretically enabling Ethiopia to capture an entire year's Blue Nile flow during drought conditions. Egypt's existential concern: filling during multi-year drought could devastate downstream agriculture.
So far, fears haven't materialized. Good rainy seasons allowed rapid filling without appreciable downstream harm; the High Aswan Dam reservoir remains full. Research suggests GERD could generate 87% of optimal hydropower without additional downstream deficit during prolonged drought. But the absence of binding agreement means this hydrological coexistence remains precarious—one bad drought away from crisis.