Egypt
Nile civilization unified 3150 BCE; Suez Canal (1869) made Egypt a chokepoint; Houthi attacks cost $8B in 2024 as 105 million cluster along one river.
Egypt exists because the Nile exists—and the Nile exists because Ethiopian highlands catch monsoon rains that have flowed north through desert for millions of years. This accident of hydrology created the world's first great civilization in a land that would otherwise be uninhabitable. Ninety-five percent of Egypt's 105 million people still live within a few kilometers of the river, just as they did when Pharaohs built pyramids.
The Nile's annual flood deposited fertile silt that enabled intensive agriculture from 6,000 years ago. King Narmer unified Upper and Lower Egypt around 3150 BCE, establishing a state that would endure for three millennia. The Old Kingdom (2686-2181 BCE) built the Pyramids of Giza; the Great Pyramid of Khufu remains the only surviving Wonder of the Ancient World. The New Kingdom (1550-1070 BCE) created an empire stretching from Nubia to the Levant under legendary pharaohs: Hatshepsut, Akhenaten, Tutankhamun, Ramesses II. This was when Egypt shaped human civilization—inventing writing systems, astronomical calendars, medical practices, and architectural techniques that spread across the ancient world.
Then came conquest. Libyans, Nubians, Assyrians, and Persians ruled in succession. Alexander the Great took Egypt in 332 BCE; his general Ptolemy founded a dynasty that ended with Cleopatra VII's death in 30 BCE. Roman, Byzantine, and Arab rule followed. The Fatimids founded Cairo in 969 CE; Saladin's Ayyubids and the Mamluks built the medieval city. Ottoman conquest in 1517 reduced Egypt to a province, economically exploited and culturally stagnant for three centuries.
The modern era began with Napoleon's 1798 invasion—militarily brief but transformative for creating Egyptology as a field (the Rosetta Stone was discovered during this campaign). Muhammad Ali, an Albanian Ottoman officer, seized power in 1805 and attempted to build an Egyptian empire through industrialization and military modernization. His ambitions threatened Ottoman and British interests alike. When Egypt couldn't repay debts from Suez Canal construction (completed 1869), Britain occupied the country in 1882, maintaining control until 1956 despite nominal independence in 1922.
The 1952 Free Officers Revolution, led by Gamal Abdel Nasser, finally achieved genuine independence. Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal in 1956, survived the subsequent British-French-Israeli invasion, and became the Arab world's dominant leader. His successors—Sadat, Mubarak, and now Sisi—have navigated wars with Israel, shifting Cold War alliances, the 2011 Arab Spring, and chronic economic fragility. The military remains Egypt's central institution, controlling an estimated 25-40% of the economy.
Geography still defines Egypt's economic constraints. The Suez Canal, handling roughly 12% of global trade, generated record revenues of $10.3 billion in 2023. Then Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping began. Revenues plummeted 60%; only 13,213 ships transited in 2024 versus 26,000 in 2023. President Sisi estimated losses at $8 billion—foreign exchange that simply vanished while Egypt's budget deficit widened. Interest payments now consume 60% of government expenditure. An $8 billion IMF loan (March 2024) provided breathing room, but disbursements remain delayed as Egypt resists structural reforms and state-enterprise privatization.
The dependency structure is brutal. Canal revenues, tourism, remittances, and agricultural exports all depend on conditions Egypt doesn't control: Yemeni militias, global travel sentiment, diaspora employment, and Nile water (increasingly contested as Ethiopia fills the Grand Renaissance Dam). Inflation peaked at 38% in September 2023 before easing to 14.9% by mid-2025; the pound lost two-thirds of its value over three years.
Through 2026, Egypt attempts stabilization. The UAE's $35 billion Ras El Hikma tourism investment promises development; Suez revenues are recovering as shipping lines return. But 105 million people compressed along a single river, dependent on a single canal, governed by an indebted military state, face arithmetic that has challenged every Egyptian government since the pharaohs: how to feed the population the Nile creates while generating enough foreign exchange to import what the desert cannot grow.