Cotopaxi

An active volcano that could devastate 300,000 people instead nurtures Ecuador's $1B flower industry—Cotopaxi demonstrates how geological risk creates agricultural opportunity. The volcano's nutrient-rich soils, combined with equatorial sunlight (12 hours daily) and 10,000-foot altitude, produce roses with stems longer and blooms larger than anywhere else. Over 50 farms operate within the evacuation zone.

The calculus is risk-adjusted return: volcanic soil advantages outweigh eruption probability. When Cotopaxi reawakened in October 2022 (8,000+ earthquakes by February 2023), ash fell daily on greenhouses. Farms cleaned solar panels, filtered water supplies, and kept exporting. The 2024 season continued despite ongoing volcanic activity—the industry has learned to operate under geological uncertainty.

Ecuador ranks as world's third-largest cut flower exporter, and Cotopaxi Province anchors production. Equatoroses exports hundreds of thousands of stems annually from 10 farms. But the model depends on cheap highland labor and premium pricing in U.S. and European markets—both vulnerable to economic downturns and competition from Colombian and Kenyan producers.

2026 trajectory: Volcanic activity continues as background condition. Market diversification beyond traditional rose exports toward high-margin specialty varieties. Labor costs rise as rural youth migrate to Quito. The question becomes whether automation can replace hands-on cultivation that volcanic-zone farming demands.