Djibouti

Djibouti exists because the Red Sea narrows to 20 miles at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—and whoever controls that chokepoint controls the passage between Europe and Asia. This accident of geology, combined with the 1869 opening of the Suez Canal, transformed a scorched patch of volcanic desert into the only country on Earth hosting both American and Chinese military bases.

The Afar and Issa peoples have inhabited this region for over a thousand years, among the first African communities to adopt Islam through contact with the Arabian Peninsula across the narrow strait. The Afar dominated the northern regions as nomadic pastoralists; the Issa (a Somali sub-clan) controlled the south. Their territories overlapped at the natural harbor that would become Djibouti City—but for centuries, the land's value lay in its trade routes rather than any resource it contained.

French interest ignited when the Suez Canal opened in 1869. Until then, French ships bought coal at British Aden across the gulf—an unwise dependency should war erupt. Between 1862 and 1887, France negotiated treaties with local Afar and Somali sultans, acquiring the coastal territory they named French Somaliland. In 1888, surveyor Eloi Pino found the ideal harbor across the Gulf of Tadjoura: deeper water, better access to inland trade routes reaching Ethiopia's highlands. Djibouti City was officially founded that year and became the colony's capital in 1894. By 1900, the coaling station for Europe-Asia shipping was the region's economic heart.

The colonial era embedded ethnic tensions that persist today. When referendums on independence were held in 1958 and 1967, voting split along ethnic lines: Somalis generally favored independence (hoping for eventual union with Somalia), while Afars preferred continued French association. France renamed the territory "French Territory of the Afars and Issas" in 1967, downplaying Somali identity. Independence finally came in 1977, with the Issa majority voting decisively to form the Republic of Djibouti. Hassan Gouled Aptidon, an Issa, became president; his nephew Ismail Omar Guelleh has ruled since 1999.

The post-Cold War era revealed Djibouti's singular value. After the 1998 embassy bombings and especially 9/11, the United States established Camp Lemonnier in 2001—its only permanent African base, now hosting 4,000 personnel at $63-70 million annual rent. France maintained 1,500 troops from its colonial deployment. Japan opened its first overseas base since World War II in 2011. Then China, in a historic break from its non-interference doctrine, opened the People's Liberation Army Support Base in 2017—a $600 million, 90-acre installation just kilometers from Camp Lemonnier. Italy and Saudi Arabia pay rent for access. Combined military base revenues reach approximately $300 million annually—10% of GDP.

The economic dependency runs deeper. Landlocked Ethiopia routes 90% of its trade through Djibouti's ports, generating hundreds of millions in transit fees. China's $14.4 billion infrastructure investment—triple Djibouti's entire GDP—built modern ports, a railway to Addis Ababa, and the base that makes American strategists nervous. Over half of Djibouti's $2.6 billion external debt is owed to China; a debt moratorium came in 2023. The relationship resembles obligate mutualism: China needs the geographic position; Djibouti needs the capital.

The Red Sea crisis of 2024-2025 tested Djibouti's careful neutrality. When Houthi forces attacked commercial shipping, Djibouti refused to let the United States launch strikes from its territory. American foreign policy circles blamed Chinese influence, but the refusal reflects Djibouti's survival strategy: neutrality with states, aggression only with non-state actors like pirates. By hosting everyone's base while joining no one's war, Djibouti remains indispensable to all.

Through 2026, Djibouti's value only increases as global shipping faces new threats and great powers compete for positioning. GDP doubled from $2 billion (2013) to $4 billion (2023), growing 6.5% in 2024. A nation of one million people, resource-poor and water-scarce, thrives by selling what geography gave it free: location at the world's bottleneck.