Cote d'Ivoire

Côte d'Ivoire exists because France needed a cocoa colony—and because the world's chocolate addiction created a commodity state that imploded into civil war when ethnicity became a weapon. This is the planet's largest cocoa producer, supplying 30% of global output, yet the country has spent two decades cycling between conflict and growth, violence and reconciliation, always returning to the bean that makes it rich and vulnerable.

France colonized the Ivory Coast in 1893 and planted cocoa and coffee across its southern forests. Independence in 1960 brought Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who ruled until 1993 with a mixture of authoritarianism and economic pragmatism that made Côte d'Ivoire West Africa's showcase. But his death exposed the fissures. 'Ivoirité'—a xenophobic ideology distinguishing 'true' Ivorians from immigrants and their descendants, particularly from the Muslim north—became political currency. Alassane Ouattara, whose parents came from Burkina Faso, was excluded from elections on citizenship grounds. The exclusion fueled polarization that erupted into civil war in 2002, splitting the country in half: rebels held the north, President Laurent Gbagbo the south.

The 2010 presidential election was supposed to end the stalemate. Ouattara won according to the electoral commission; the Constitutional Council invalidated votes and declared Gbagbo the winner. Both men were sworn in. Post-election violence killed over 3,000. UN and French forces eventually arrested Gbagbo in April 2011, and Ouattara took power. Gbagbo was tried for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court—and acquitted in 2021 after nearly a decade in detention. He returned to Ivory Coast and was pardoned by Ouattara, a gesture of reconciliation that preserved peace while concentrating power.

Ouattara's economic record is formidable. Since 2012, GDP has more than doubled to $72.4 billion. Growth hit 7% in 2024 and is projected to match in 2025—outpacing Nigeria and Ghana. Inflation remains around 3%, among Africa's lowest, anchored by the CFA franc's peg to the euro. The country raised $2.6 billion in eurobonds in January 2024 at yields that would be unthinkable for most African sovereigns. This is the largest economy in the West African monetary union, a regional anchor.

Yet everything depends on cocoa. When global production fell in 2024, prices doubled from $3,000 to $11,000 per ton; the government raised farmgate prices 50% and suspended futures sales. Cocoa accounts for 15-20% of GDP and most export revenues. The government's goal is to process 50% of the harvest domestically by 2026—currently 44%—moving up the value chain from bean exporter to chocolate maker. EU deforestation regulations taking effect December 2025 add new compliance burdens.

Ouattara, now 83, won re-election in October 2025 with 91% of the vote—both Gbagbo and technocrat Tidjane Thiam were barred from competing. His party controls 77% of Parliament, 80% of regions, and two-thirds of municipalities. The succession question looms: Ouattara has promised this term will be his last, but he promised that before 2020 as well.

By 2026, Côte d'Ivoire will likely maintain its growth trajectory while processing more cocoa domestically, but the political system's dependence on one aging leader mirrors the economy's dependence on one commodity. Like a cocoa tree that must be replanted after decades, the institutions built around Ouattara may not survive transplantation to a successor. The question is whether reconciliation with Gbagbo was genuine transformation or just the current strongman's generosity to the previous one.