Cook Islands
Cook Islands: 14,300 people, highest Pacific GDP per capita ($25,651). 14% growth in 2024, tourism 70-85% of GDP. NZ free association since 1965. China seabed deal 2025. By 2026: tourism boom continues, geopolitics intensifies.
The Cook Islands exist because Polynesian navigators settled these fifteen islands a millennium ago—and because a peculiar constitutional arrangement lets 14,300 people maintain sovereignty while outsourcing defense to New Zealand. This is perhaps the most successful micro-state in the Pacific: the highest GDP per capita in the region at $25,651, a self-governing democracy, and tourism revenues that pushed the economy past $700 million in 2025 on track for $1 billion by 2030.
Polynesians reached these volcanic and coral islands around 1000 CE, establishing the societies that Captain James Cook encountered in 1773 (he named them the Hervey Islands; a Russian cartographer later applied Cook's name). Britain declared a protectorate in 1888, then transferred administration to New Zealand in 1901. The 1965 constitution created 'free association'—the Cook Islands governs itself with complete internal autonomy while New Zealand handles defense and maintains the right to act in foreign affairs if requested. Cook Islanders are New Zealand citizens, which explains why more Cook Islanders live in New Zealand and Australia than on the islands themselves.
This population paradox shapes everything. The roughly 80,000 Cook Islanders in New Zealand send remittances home, while the 14,300 residents focus on the two industries that actually work in remote Pacific islands: tourism and fishing. Tourism accounts for 70-85% of GDP, with visitor numbers at record levels in 2025. About half the workforce is employed in hotels, restaurants, and services catering to travelers seeking Polynesian beaches without the hassle of Tahiti's French bureaucracy or Hawaii's crowds.
The economy grew an extraordinary 14% in 2024—the highest of any Pacific island country—as post-pandemic tourism roared back. Growth is projected at 8.6% in 2025. In 2020, the Cook Islands graduated from the OECD's official aid recipient list and was reclassified as a high-income country—an almost unprecedented achievement for a Pacific micro-state. The flip side: the islands are now too 'rich' for much development assistance, though New Zealand still provides 42% of the aid that does arrive, followed by China at 22%.
China's interest is strategic. In 2025, the Cook Islands signed a five-year agreement for Chinese seabed mineral exploration. The nation controls an exclusive economic zone of 1.9 million square kilometers—130,000 times its land area—containing polymetallic nodules with cobalt, manganese, and rare earths. This is the new geopolitics of the Pacific: tiny populations controlling vast ocean resources that great powers covet.
By 2026, the Cook Islands will likely continue its delicate balance: taking Chinese investment for seabed research while maintaining New Zealand's security umbrella, developing luxury tourism for Western visitors while preserving Polynesian culture, and exporting its working-age population while importing tourists who spend enough to make the math work. For a nation smaller than most cities, this is an impressive feat of institutional engineering—proof that island biogeography can apply to political economies as much as species distributions.