Comoros

Comoros exists because these volcanic islands sit at a crossroads of African, Arab, and Malay trade routes—and because one island chose France over independence. When the archipelago declared independence on July 6, 1975, Mayotte voted to remain French, becoming France's 101st department while its three sister islands embarked on the most coup-prone trajectory in Africa: roughly 20 coups or coup attempts in fifty years.

Arab traders reached these islands perhaps as early as the 6th century, establishing the Sultanates that gave Comoros its Islamic character. France colonized Mayotte around 1840 and absorbed the rest by 1890. The islands were administered as part of Madagascar from 1914 to 1958 before gaining internal autonomy. Independence fractured what geography had united: Mayotte's vote to stay French created a permanently irredentist claim that Comoran governments still pursue, while France enjoys a strategic Indian Ocean outpost that draws desperate Comorans attempting the crossing in overloaded boats.

The archipelago's political history reads like a mercenary adventure novel. Bob Denard, a French soldier of fortune, was involved in multiple coups, briefly installing Ahmed Abdallah twice and Ali Soilih once. When Azali Assoumani, a military chief, seized power in 1999, it was merely the latest in a long sequence. His 2000 Fomboni Accords created the system where the federal presidency was supposed to rotate among the three islands—Grande Comore, Anjouan, and Mohéli—every five years. By 2018, Azali had engineered constitutional reforms removing that rotation requirement, allowing him to be re-elected indefinitely. He won a third term in January 2024, and his party swept parliamentary and municipal elections in early 2025.

The economy smells like perfume. Comoros is the world's leading producer of ylang-ylang essence, used in high-end fragrances, and the second-largest vanilla producer after Madagascar. Cloves alone accounted for 64.9% of exports in 2023. Agriculture employs over 80% of the population and contributed 36.6% to GDP in 2024. This narrow export base—essentially three aromatic crops—makes the economy vulnerable to commodity price swings and climate shocks. GDP growth reached 3.3% in 2024, projected at 3.4% for 2025, driven by services and construction rather than the farm sector.

Poverty remains entrenched at over 43%, though ambitious projects like the 2027 Indian Ocean Games and the Plan Comores Emergent 2030 aim to attract investment. Public debt has crept from 33.7% to 36.5% of GDP. The fourth review of the IMF-supported program was completed in June 2025, marking two consecutive years of fiscal consolidation—modest progress for a country that has repeatedly defaulted on governance.

The Mayotte question won't be resolved. France benefits too much from the territory's strategic location, and Comorans benefit too much from French citizenship as an escape route. The migration flow continues: small boats, overcrowded crossings, drownings in the Mozambique Channel. Comoros is too small to force the issue and too proud to abandon the claim.

By 2026, Azali will likely still be president, the ylang-ylang will still be blooming, and the boats will still be attempting the crossing to Mayotte. The pattern holds: fragrant exports, fragile institutions, fractured geography. Comoros demonstrates what happens when colonial partition creates a country missing a limb—and when that limb becomes the richer destination for everyone trying to leave.