Guaviare

Guaviare is Colombia's deforestation frontline—and the place where no legal crop can match coca economics. With only four municipalities and roughly 112,000 residents, the department generates just 0.09% of national GDP through its legal economy. The illegal economy dwarfs it: Guaviare produces approximately 5% of Colombia's coca, and residents say no substitute crop offers comparable returns from a fast-growing bush with multiple annual harvests and guaranteed buyers.

Deforestation surged 233% between 2016 and 2017 as cattle ranching expanded into formerly FARC-controlled territory. San José del Guaviare alone accounts for 63% of the department's forest loss since 2001, with over 34,000 hectares cleared in peak years. Annual tree cover loss averaged 2,793 hectares before 2016 and rose to 7,336 hectares afterward. In 2024, the military reported 2,622 anti-personnel mines in Guaviare and neighboring departments—landmines that enforce armed-group territorial control and slow any state presence.

By 2026, Guaviare will test whether alternative livelihoods can compete with coca. UN agencies and the Guaviare Peace Network are building markets for 1,200 ex-coca grower families, but the math remains challenging: coca's multiple harvests and guaranteed buyers create an economic advantage no cacao or fish cooperative has matched. If these programs scale and demining allows normal agriculture, Guaviare could demonstrate post-coca transition. If not, it will remain the frontier where deforestation and coca feed each other.