Cambodia

Cambodia exists because the Mekong River creates a flood pulse so predictable it enabled history's largest pre-industrial city—and because the Khmer Rouge's attempt to reset society to 'Year Zero' destroyed the very population whose labor would rebuild it. The Tonle Sap lake reverses flow annually, flooding forests that become fish nurseries, feeding the agricultural surplus that built Angkor Wat. By the 12th century, the Khmer Empire controlled most of mainland Southeast Asia, its capital of Angkor home to perhaps a million people with hydraulic engineering unmatched until modern times.

Geography both blessed and cursed Cambodia. Sandwiched between powerful neighbors Thailand and Vietnam, the kingdom spent centuries as a buffer state, losing territory to both. France established a protectorate in 1863, nominally to protect Cambodia from Siamese and Vietnamese encroachment but actually to complete its Indochinese empire. Colonial rule preserved the monarchy while extracting rubber and rice, leaving minimal industrial development.

Independence in 1953 under King Sihanouk brought brief optimism before Cold War dynamics consumed the region. Cambodia's attempts at neutrality failed as the Vietnam War spilled across borders—American bombing from 1969-1973 dropped more tonnage than all of World War II's Pacific theater, destabilizing the countryside. Into this chaos rose the Khmer Rouge. From April 1975 to January 1979, Pol Pot's regime executed the most radical social experiment in history: evacuating cities, abolishing money, murdering intellectuals, and attempting agricultural collectivization. Between 1.5 and 2 million died—roughly one-quarter of the population. The regime specifically targeted the educated: wearing glasses could mean execution.

Vietnam invaded in December 1978, ending the genocide but beginning a decade of occupation. Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge commander who defected, rose through Vietnamese-backed ranks to become prime minister in 1985. He would rule for 38 years through a combination of patronage networks, strategic violence, and increasingly authoritarian control. The Paris Peace Accords of 1991 and UN-supervised elections in 1993 created democratic structures that Hun Sen systematically hollowed out, dissolving the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party in 2017.

Today's Cambodia runs on garments and Chinese money. The textile sector employs over 900,000 workers—predominantly young women from rural areas—producing roughly one-third of GDP. This monoculture vulnerability became apparent when Trump-era tariffs in April 2025 initially hit 49% before negotiation reduced them to 19%. Chinese investment now comprises 53% of approved foreign direct investment, funding everything from hydropower dams on Mekong tributaries to the controversial Dara Sakor development zone, where a 99-year lease covers 20% of Cambodia's coastline. The Ream Naval Base upgrade, which Cambodia insists is not for Chinese military use, symbolizes the strategic pivot from Western donors toward Beijing.

The dynastic succession completed in July 2023 when Hun Sen handed power to his son Hun Manet, a West Point graduate who nonetheless maintains his father's political machine. Cambodia's GDP reached $46.3 billion in 2024, but per capita income remains around $1,900—still classified as lower-middle income. The country exemplifies what economists call the 'middle-income trap': successful enough at low-wage manufacturing to graduate from poverty, but without the institutions, education, or technology to climb higher.

By 2026, Cambodia will likely deepen its China dependency as Western markets impose ESG-driven supply chain requirements the country cannot meet. The demographic dividend of young workers that powered the garment industry is aging, while automation threatens remaining competitive advantages. Without the hydraulic engineering genius of Angkor's builders—literally the ability to manage complex systems—Cambodia risks becoming what it was between empires: a buffer state whose fate is decided in Bangkok, Hanoi, and increasingly Beijing.