Burundi
Burundi: Belgian ethnic identity cards shaped civil war (200,000 dead). Now: 34.8% of exports are gold, $15B Russian nickel deal signed, 39% inflation. By 2026: mining uplift or infrastructure collapse.
Burundi exists because kingdoms formed around Lake Tanganyika's highlands—and because Belgian administrators codified ethnicity into identity cards. The kingdom emerged in the 16th century, ruled by a mwami (king) and princely aristocracy. It doubled in size under Ntare IV (1796-1850), developing sophisticated social structures that Europeans would later misread as racial hierarchy.
German East Africa incorporated Burundi from 1894, ruling indirectly through the existing monarchy. When Belgium took control during World War I, administrators embraced the 'Hamitic hypothesis'—the racist theory that Tutsi were superior Semitic migrants. Belgium issued ethnic identity cards, favored Tutsi in administration, and hardened fluid social categories into fixed castes. The poison would spread for decades.
Independence came on July 1, 1962, with the monarchy intact. Three months earlier, Prince Louis Rwagasore—the 29-year-old independence hero whose UPRONA party had won 80% of the vote—was assassinated, likely with Belgian complicity. In 1966, the monarchy was abolished. In 1993, Burundi's first democratically elected president, a Hutu, was assassinated after 100 days in office. The ensuing civil war killed over 200,000 people, displaced 140,000, and pushed 48,000 into Tanzanian refugee camps before ending in 2005.
The ruling CNDD-FDD has dominated since, with President Ndayishimiye taking power in 2020 for a seven-year term. He has fought corruption and passed a new Mining Code in 2023 to unlock gold, nickel, and rare earth deposits. A 2022 deal with a Russian company promises $15 billion in nickel development over ten years. Gold already accounts for 34.8% of exports, while coffee and tea—the traditional backbone—contribute 19.1% and 9.2% respectively.
Yet infrastructure remains broken. By late 2025, fuel shortages have persisted for five years, power outages are routine, and inflation hit 39% in early 2025. GDP grew 3.5% in 2024, projected to reach 4.6-5.9% as mining expands. Agriculture still employs over 90% of the population on land that ranks among the world's most densely farmed.
By 2026, the question is whether mining revenue can finally break the colonial inheritance of ethnic politics and infrastructure neglect—or whether Burundi remains trapped between coffee hills and Russian mining contracts.