Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso: Sankara's 'Land of Honest People' has had two coups since 2022 and now hosts Russian mercenaries. Gold output falling, militant deaths tripled. By 2026: Russian security gamble.
Burkina Faso exists because colonial administrators needed a labor reserve—and because Thomas Sankara renamed it. France created Upper Volta in 1919 as a distinct colony, then dissolved it in 1932 by partitioning the territory among Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, and French Sudan when it proved unprofitable. In 1947, France reconstituted the colony because it needed organized labor for cocoa plantations to the south. Independence came on August 5, 1960, but no peaceful transition of power would occur for the next 54 years.
The exception that proved the pattern was Thomas Sankara. The 33-year-old captain seized power on August 4, 1983, and launched reforms at revolutionary speed: mass vaccinations reached 2.5 million children, 10 million trees were planted to halt desertification, women gained unprecedented rights, and villages built their own schools. On August 4, 1984, he renamed the country 'Burkina Faso'—'Land of Honest People' in Mooré and Dyula. On October 15, 1987, Sankara was assassinated by his chief advisor Blaise Compaoré, who then ruled for 27 years until mass protests forced him out in 2014.
Since then, the cycle has accelerated. Two coups in 2022 alone brought Captain Ibrahim Traoré to power at age 34. Elections scheduled for July 2024 were postponed until 2029; in July 2025, the junta dissolved the electoral commission entirely. In January 2025, Burkina Faso left ECOWAS and joined the Alliance of Sahel States with Mali and Niger—a confederation of military governments pivoting from France toward Russia.
The pivot has a price tag. Russia's Nordgold received a gold mining license in April 2025, and roughly 100 Russian mercenaries (formerly Wagner, now Africa Corps) provide security for Traoré personally. Yet gold output has fallen from 67 metric tons in 2021 to 47.7 in 2024, and militant violence has tripled—11,600 deaths in 2023, with over 30% of territory outside state control. Mining generates 15% of GDP and 75% of foreign reserves; 60% of mining revenue now goes to security.
The IMF recorded 5% GDP growth in 2024, but 487 militant attacks represented a 22% year-over-year increase. By 2026, the question is whether Russian guns can suppress what French guns could not—or whether the 'Land of Honest People' continues its pattern of revolutionary promise followed by autocratic capture.