Bulgaria
Bulgaria: first Balkan state to fall to Ottomans (1396), last to join Schengen (2025). GDP up 538% since 2000, but population down from 9M to 6.5M. By 2026: EU integration vs. the emigration drain.
Bulgaria exists because it was first to fall—and last to rise. Of all European states conquered by the Ottoman Turks, Bulgaria fell earliest (the final stronghold of Vidin surrendered in 1396) and remained under Ottoman rule longest. For nearly 500 years, the 'Turkish yoke' erased Bulgarian statehood entirely: the Orthodox Church was subordinated to Constantinople, the elite was eliminated, and no Bulgarian institution survived. When liberation finally came in 1878—after Russia's war with the Ottomans and the Treaty of San Stefano—Bulgaria had to rebuild a national identity from folklore and language alone.
The modern history has been equally compressed. Bulgaria barely had time to industrialize before World War II ended in Soviet occupation. In 1946, it became a communist state so thoroughly aligned with Moscow that Bulgarians joked they were 'the sixteenth Soviet republic.' When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Bulgaria's Communist Party leader Todor Zhivkov was removed on November 10—one day after the Wall. The transition that followed was painful: living standards fell below communist-era levels well into the 2000s. A 2009 survey found only 11% of Bulgarians thought ordinary people had benefited from the changes.
Yet Bulgaria kept integrating westward. NATO membership came in 2004, EU accession in 2007 (despite corruption concerns), and on January 1, 2025, Bulgaria finally joined the Schengen zone—ending border controls that had persisted longer than the Iron Curtain. Euro adoption is expected by 2026.
The economic transformation has been remarkable in aggregate: GDP grew from $13.15 billion in 2000 to $107 billion in 2024—a 538% increase. Growth hit 3.4% in 2024, with solar capacity expanding 80% annually as Bulgaria pivots from Russian energy dependence. But seven elections since 2021 have failed to produce stable government, FDI dropped 55% in 2024, and emigration has hollowed out the workforce—the population has fallen from 9 million to under 6.5 million since 1989.
By 2026, Bulgaria faces a familiar post-transition question: can EU funds (€5.7 billion available, 6% of GDP) fill the hole left by departing workers, or does this economy reach its autopilot limits just as its institutions finally gain full EU access?