Botswana
Botswana: Africa's exception—diamond wealth reinvested, not extracted, becoming first country to achieve 95-95-95 HIV targets. Now: lab-grown diamonds crashed sales 48%. By 2026: diversify or decline.
Botswana exists because its leaders did what extractive economies rarely do: they saved. When Bechuanaland gained independence in 1966, it was among Africa's poorest countries—less than 20 kilometers of paved road, a GDP of $30 million, a largely uneducated workforce. Seretse Khama, who had been exiled by the British to appease apartheid South Africa (his crime: marrying a white Englishwoman), returned to lead the new nation.
Then came diamonds. Discovered at Orapa in 1967, they transformed a cattle-herding backwater into a middle-income success story. The difference was governance. Rather than allowing diamond revenues to flow to elites or foreign accounts, Botswana's leaders struck a partnership with De Beers that kept profits in the country and reinvested them in education (85% literacy), universal healthcare, and infrastructure. For three decades, Botswana grew faster than any country on Earth.
But diamonds were not the only test. When HIV/AIDS struck in the 1990s, Botswana's prevalence rose to the world's highest—over 20% of adults infected. The response was equally decisive: Botswana became the first sub-Saharan African country to offer free antiretroviral treatment nationally. By 2024, it became the first high-burden country to reach the WHO Gold Tier for eliminating mother-to-child HIV transmission. The UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets? Botswana achieved them first—worldwide.
Now comes the existential test. Lab-grown diamonds, indistinguishable from natural ones, have reshaped consumer preferences. Diamond sales plunged 48% in Q1 2024. GDP contracted 3.3%, the budget deficit hit 9.2%, and Moody's revised the outlook to negative in April 2025. The government responded by renegotiating the De Beers partnership (raising its stake from 25% to 50%) and launching a sovereign wealth fund in September 2025 to diversify into copper, uranium, tourism, and tech.
By 2026, the question: can Botswana's institutional discipline—the trait that made it Africa's exception—now manage the transition from the industry that built it?