Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia: where three empires overlapped and three ethnic groups now share veto power. 30 years after Dayton, 68% fear renewed conflict. By 2026: EU integration or institutional paralysis.
Bosnia and Herzegovina exists because empires met here—and because no successor has governed alone. The Ottomans ruled for four centuries, converting much of the population to Islam by 1600. Austria-Hungary annexed the territory in 1908, setting the stage for the assassination that ignited World War I: Archduke Franz Ferdinand was shot in Sarajevo in June 1914 by a Bosnian Serb seeking unity with Serbia. After 1945, Tito's Yugoslavia suppressed ethnic nationalism through federal structures and personal authority. When Tito died in 1980, that authority died with him.
The breakup was catastrophic. From 1992 to 1995, the Bosnian War produced the worst atrocities in Europe since World War II. Sarajevo endured a four-year siege. In July 1995, Bosnian Serb forces executed 8,372 Bosniak men and boys at Srebrenica—the only incident in postwar Europe recognized as genocide.
The Dayton Accords froze the conflict into constitutional form. Bosnia became a single state containing two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosniak-Croat) and Republika Srpska (Serb), plus the centrally-administered Brčko District. A rotating presidency, an international High Representative with override powers, and EU peacekeepers (EUFOR) maintain the architecture. Each ethnic group can veto national decisions. The country exists but cannot act.
Thirty years on, the structure calcifies dysfunction. In February 2025, the Court of Bosnia sentenced Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik to prison for defying the High Representative. In March 2025, EU accession negotiations finally began—but implementation of reforms remains glacial. Surveys show 68% of citizens fear renewed conflict. 81% distrust the judiciary. 74% view politicians as corrupt. Youth emigration accelerates.
GDP grew 2.8% in 2024, with inflation at 1.7%. By 2026, the question is whether the Dayton architecture—designed to end a war, not build a state—can evolve fast enough for EU membership, or whether Bosnia remains frozen: too interconnected to separate, too divided to function.