Belize
Belize: where Maya ruins meet the world's second-largest barrier reef—GDP grew 10.5% in 2024 but reef health declined to 'poor'. By 2026: blue economy or reef collapse.
Belize exists because the Maya built cities here—and because the British needed mahogany. At its peak around 900 CE, two million Maya lived in what is now Belize, constructing Caracol, Xunantunich, and a dozen other ceremonial centers. The civilization's collapse left behind ruins that tourists now pay to visit. The British arrived in the 17th century for timber, defeated Spain at the Battle of St. George's Caye in 1798, and held the territory as British Honduras until independence in 1981—making it the last mainland British colony in the Americas.
Today, Belize has found a niche that its neighbors cannot replicate: the only English-speaking country in Central America, with the world's second-largest barrier reef as its defining asset. Tourism generates over 40% of the $6.5 billion GDP and 37% of employment. International arrivals grew 30% in 2024—the highest rate in the Caribbean—and unemployment fell to an all-time low of 2.1%.
But the ecosystem that drives the economy is under stress. The Belize Barrier Reef—a UNESCO World Heritage site contributing $1 billion annually through tourism, fisheries, and shoreline protection—has deteriorated from 'fair' to 'poor' health. Overfishing and habitat loss threaten the keystone species that the economy depends on. In January 2025, the World Bank approved $32.23 million for 'blue economy' investments, attempting to balance exploitation and preservation.
Belize's 417,300 people (2025) occupy 22,965 km² of mountains, swamps, and jungle. Guatemala still disputes the border, though a 2019 referendum sent the question to the International Court of Justice. By 2026, Belize's trajectory depends on whether it can protect the reef while scaling tourism—the same tension that defines carrying capacity in any ecosystem.