Mogilev Region
Mogilev Region exhibits competitive exclusion: eastern oblast receives lowest investment at 8.8%, dependent on state mandates rather than market flows.
Mogilev Region occupies the periphery of Belarus's economic geography—receiving just 8.8% of national fixed capital investment (January-May 2024), lowest among oblasts. The eastern territory borders Russia but lacks the strategic transit value of western oblasts or the industrial concentration of Gomel. This is competitive exclusion by omission: not actively disadvantaged, simply last in line for resources.
The region maintains industrial activity through legacy enterprises in Mogilev and Bobruisk, but the UNDP's investment programs specifically targeted Mogilev alongside Vitebsk as regions needing external credit support—together receiving $5.8 million in SME financing. The distinction matters: border regions attract Free Economic Zones; industrial regions attract heavy investment; Mogilev attracts development assistance.
Yet periphery has protective effects. When 2022 sanctions collapsed foreign investment and 15,000 IT workers fled, Mogilev lost less because it had less to lose. The 2025 government budget mandates 25% increases in state investment for agriculture, roads, industry, and construction—intervention targeting precisely the regions that market forces underserve. Mogilev's future depends on whether command economics can substitute for the geographic advantages it lacks.