Belarus
Belarus exhibits obligate symbiosis with Russia: sanctions made Moscow control 90% of exports, 80% of imports, and 65% of debt as potash revenues collapsed.
Belarus has become a case study in economic capture. Landlocked between Russia and the European Union, it once served as a transit corridor—'the lungs of Europe' with 40% forest cover and Europe's largest wetland (the Pripyat Marshes). The Belovezhskaya Pushcha preserves the last primeval forest on the continent, home to free-ranging European bison. But since 2020, the Lukashenko regime's survival has depended entirely on Moscow.
Western sanctions after the 2020 election protests and support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine fundamentally reoriented the economy. Potash—once 20% of global exports, generating $2.5-2.8 billion annually—was blocked from Western markets and cut off from its transit route through Lithuania's Klaipeda port. Belarus now routes exports through Russian seaports, with 14 million tons of capacity secured in 2023.
The dependence is comprehensive. Russia controls approximately 90% of Belarusian exports and 80% of imports through direct trade and logistics. Over 80% of energy comes from Russia. Of Belarus's $17 billion external debt, 65% is owed to Russia or Russian-controlled entities, with debt repayments deferred until 2028. Experts group Belarus with North Korea and Syria in terms of isolation and single-patron dependence.
December 2025 brought a partial thaw: Belarus freed Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski, opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova, and 123 political prisoners. The US lifted potash sanctions in exchange. But critics note the regime's dependence on Moscow is existential, not merely economic—it survives because of Russian security backing. The marshes and forests remain; Belarus's position as an independent transit economy does not.