Tucuman Province

Tucumán Province—"El Jardín de la República"—demonstrates path-dependent agricultural evolution where monoculture crisis forced diversification. The most densely populated and second-smallest Argentine province built its economy on sugar after railways arrived in 1876, eventually producing 60% of national output from 2,300 km² of sugarcane (64% of Argentine cultivation, 274,180 hectares).

Sugar monoculture created vulnerability that exploded in the 1960s crisis. President Onganía (1966-70) closed several sugar mills and mandated industrial diversification. The response—pivoting to citrus—positioned Tucumán as world's leading lemon producer and Argentina's citrus heartland. This crop substitution converted crisis into comparative advantage for half a century.

Contemporary data reveals a second transition underway. Between 2022-2024, citrus area in Tucumán shrunk by 5,600+ hectares, replaced by sugarcane or grains. Lemon area consolidated at 40,100 of 41,700 total citrus hectares (November 2024), but buds delivered by the entity fell 50% over five years. Fresh lemon exports collapsed to 170,000 tons in 2024—the lowest in years—following the worst drought in 94 years, heatwave, currency crisis, and 102.5% inflation.

The 2024 agricultural emergency declaration for Tucumán's lemon production acknowledged climate and economic stress. Recovery projections for 2025 (215,000 tons, +26%) depend on reduced northern hemisphere competition rather than restored productivity.

By 2026, Tucumán faces another potential transformation—testing whether citrus remains viable or whether the province pivots again, perhaps toward the sugarcane from which it once escaped.