Argentina

Argentina cycles through economic crises with a regularity that resembles punctuated equilibrium—long periods of stagnation interrupted by dramatic restructuring. President Milei's shock therapy, initiated in late 2023, represents the latest such rupture. Inflation peaked near 300% in April 2024 before falling to 1.5% monthly by mid-2025. Poverty spiked to 53% then dropped to 32%—the lowest since 2018. The country achieved its first fiscal surplus in 14 years.

Geography explains Argentina's fundamental wealth. The Pampas—466,000 square miles of fertile grassland—make Argentina the world's largest exporter of soy-derived products and a major beef producer. Agricultural exports comprise roughly half of foreign earnings. But the economy has diversified into resource extraction: Vaca Muerta in Patagonia holds the second-largest shale reserves globally after China, with $22 billion in energy investments projected for 2026-2028. Lithium reserves—20% of global identified resources—position Argentina in the battery metals supply chain, with mining exports expected to reach $5.5 billion in 2025.

The volatility reflects structural tensions. Argentina is the world's 8th largest country by area (2.7 million km²) yet struggles to convert resource abundance into stable development. The Andes create a natural barrier to Chile; Patagonia remains sparsely populated despite its wealth; Buenos Aires concentrates population and power. Each crisis triggers capital flight, currency collapse, and default—followed by recovery, external borrowing, and the next crisis.

Milei's experiment tests whether fiscal discipline and market liberalization can break this pattern. Early results show promise: a record $18.9 billion trade surplus in 2024, projected 5% GDP growth in 2025, and investor interest in mining and energy. But Argentina has exited crises before. The question is whether this restructuring—unlike previous ones—becomes permanent.