Albania

Albania demonstrates how diaspora can become an economy's lifeline. Since communism's collapse in 1991, over 800,000 Albanians—more than a third of the population—have emigrated, primarily to Italy and Greece. This exodus created a biological feedback loop: emigrants send money home, and remittances peaked at 18% of GDP before settling to 9.4% by 2021. The pattern mirrors salmon returning nutrients upstream—value flows back even as bodies move away.

Geography both isolated and connected Albania. With 76% of its territory covered by mountains including the Albanian Alps reaching 2,764 meters, internal development was historically constrained. Yet the Adriatic and Ionian coastlines place Albania just 72 km from Italy, making it a natural gateway between Western Europe and the Balkans. This edge position explains the country's unusual export mix: ferroalloys ($450M), footwear parts ($323M), electricity from hydropower ($287M), and crude petroleum ($280M).

Albania's economy shows the characteristics of a transitional ecosystem. GDP grew 3.4% in early 2025, driven by construction, real estate, and tourism rather than manufacturing. Italy absorbs $1.75 billion of Albania's $4.3 billion in exports—a dependency that creates both opportunity and vulnerability. The country ranks 77th in economic complexity, having become relatively less complex over the past two decades as specialization narrowed.

EU accession talks opened in October 2024, representing a potential phase transition. If successful, Albania would gain access to larger markets and capital flows, but would also face competitive pressure on its protected niches. The next decade will test whether the country can convert its geographic position and diaspora connections into sustained development, or remain a source economy exporting people and raw materials to more complex neighbors.