Logar

Logar contains Afghanistan's most significant unrealized asset—the Mes Aynak copper deposit, estimated at 5.5 to 11.5 million metric tons of ore, potentially the second-largest copper reserve in the world. In 2008, Chinese state-owned enterprises MCC and Jiangxi Copper won a thirty-year, $4.4 billion lease. Sixteen years later, in July 2024, a groundbreaking ceremony finally took place as excavators began constructing the access road. MCC representatives announced readiness to start production in 2025 if government procedures proceed smoothly.

The delay illustrates path dependence created by conflict. NATO-Taliban combat prevented the project from moving forward from 2008 until the Taliban takeover in 2021. The potential payoff is substantial: $250-300 million in annual revenue, plus $800 million in fees over the contract's duration. Located just 40 kilometers southeast of Kabul, Mes Aynak could anchor Afghanistan's mineral extraction economy and help address the country's desperate need for legitimate revenue sources.

Yet concerns compound alongside opportunity. Water expert Najibullah Said warns that processing one ton of copper generates 200 tons of waste that could contaminate the Logar River, eventually affecting half of Kabul's water supply. Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) poses ongoing security threats. And buried beneath the copper lies an ancient Buddhist city—a heritage site the Taliban have pledged to preserve, breaking from their Buddha-destroying past. Logar thus crystallizes Afghanistan's resource curse dilemma: extraordinary mineral wealth that remains inaccessible due to security, infrastructure, and environmental constraints. The province waits for conditions that may never fully align.