Brazil
Brazil operates as a federal presidential republic with 26 states and a Federal District. As Latin America's largest economy and most populous nation, Brazil's governance challenges include managing vast geographic diversity, extreme inequality, and a fragmented political system with dozens of parties.
The 1988 Constitution created an extensive welfare state and strong federalism, but also a legislative system requiring coalition-building across many small parties. The 'Centrão' - a bloc of ideologically flexible center-right parties - often holds the balance of power, extracting concessions from any president.
With 35+ parties in Congress (no party ever has more than 15% of seats), every president must build coalitions by distributing cabinet posts and budget amendments. The 'Centrão' parties (PP, PL, Republicans) can keep any president functional or destroy them - they kept both Lula and Bolsonaro afloat.
Key Facts
Power Dynamics
President proposes, Congress disposes
Centrão kingmakers extract patronage from any president; STF (Supreme Court) has become increasingly activist
- Centrão bloc
- Supreme Court (STF)
- State governors (especially São Paulo)
- Car Wash prosecutors (diminished)
- President-Centrão bargaining
- Agribusiness caucus
- Evangelical caucus
Revenue Structure
Brazil Revenue Sources
- Federal taxes (income, industrial products) 40% ↻
- State taxes (ICMS on goods) 30% ↻
- Social contributions 25% →
- Oil royalties (Petrobras) 5%
Volatile with oil prices
Commodity export dependence; mandatory spending (pensions, healthcare) leaves little discretionary room
Like a developing country with developed-country welfare commitments
Decision Dynamics at Brazil
COVID vaccine procurement accelerated after political crisis (2021)
Tax reform discussed for 30+ years, partial reform only in 2023
Coalition arithmetic - must satisfy too many parties for any coherent policy
Failure Modes of Brazil
- Dilma impeachment (2016)
- Hyperinflation era (1980s-1994)
- Car Wash corruption scandals
- Party fragmentation prevents coherent governance
- Mandatory spending crowds out investment
- Amazon deforestation enforcement gaps
If commodity prices crash while pension costs rise, fiscal crisis could trigger constitutional crisis
Biological Parallel
Like a siphonophore with too many specialized zooids pulling in different directions. The 35+ parties are like semi-autonomous units that must coordinate but often defect. The Centrão acts as a parasitic element that extracts resources from the host (the presidency) in exchange for not killing it. No single organizing principle - just continuous negotiation.
Key Agencies
Central bank
Competition authority
Environmental enforcement