Twenty Warning Signs
Dynamic monitoring checklist of 20 indicators that signal increasing extinction risk.
Dynamic monitoring checklist of 20 indicators that signal increasing extinction risk. Unlike the static vulnerability audit, this tracks changes over time that predict collapse.
When to Use Twenty Warning Signs
Quarterly reviews with leadership team. If 5+ indicators present simultaneously, risk is elevated. If 10+, risk is critical.
How to Apply
Assess Declining Adaptability (5 indicators)
Decision velocity slowing, innovation pipeline drying up, talent exodus accelerating (>15% annually), technical debt accumulating, customer complaints rising.
Questions to Ask
- Is time from decision to implementation increasing?
- Are new product launches declining?
- Is key employee turnover >15%?
- Is maintenance consuming growing % of engineering?
- Are support tickets rising faster than customer growth?
Assess Environmental Shifts (5 indicators)
Market share eroding (3+ quarters), pricing power declining, new competitors appearing with different models, regulatory environment shifting, customer behavior changing.
Questions to Ask
- Are you losing share despite stable/growing market?
- Can you raise prices without defection?
- Are startups entering with disruptive models?
- Is pending legislation threatening your model?
- Are core use cases declining?
Assess Internal Fragility (5 indicators)
Cash burn accelerating, leverage increasing (debt service >30% of operating cash), cost-cutting prioritized over growth, morale deteriorating, operational metrics degrading.
Questions to Ask
- Is cash runway declining?
- Is debt/equity ratio rising?
- Is executive focus on cutting rather than growing?
- Are engagement scores and Glassdoor ratings dropping?
- Is CAC rising while LTV and retention decline?
Assess Dependency Vulnerabilities (4 indicators)
Customer concentration increasing (top customer % rising), supplier/partner risk rising, geographic concentration increasing (single market >60%), product concentration increasing (single product >70%).
Questions to Ask
- Is top customer approaching 30-40%+ of revenue?
- Are critical suppliers in financial distress?
- Is single market dominating revenue?
- Is single product dominating revenue?
Assess Threshold Proximity (1 indicator)
Near-miss events increasing - narrowly avoided disasters with rising frequency of crises.
Questions to Ask
- Are you having more close calls (payroll nearly missed, customer nearly lost, compliance deadline nearly missed)?