Three-Gate Germination Audit
A diagnostic framework for deciding whether to launch (germinate) a startup, product, or initiative.
A diagnostic framework for deciding whether to launch (germinate) a startup, product, or initiative. All three gates must show green before committing resources to growth.
When to Use Three-Gate Germination Audit
Before committing to launch any new venture, product, or major initiative. Use when deciding whether 'now' is the right time to break dormancy and burn reserves on growth.
How to Apply
Environmental Signal Detection
Assess whether the environment is ready for your venture. Don't ask 'Can I build this?' Ask 'Is the environment ready for this?'
Questions to Ask
- What environmental shift makes this possible now that wasn't possible 2-3 years ago?
- Can I name 3 specific examples of this shift?
- Is this shift early (ahead of wave) or late (catching up)?
- What would have to change for this shift to reverse?
Outputs
- Environmental readiness assessment
- Timing position (early/middle/late)
Reserve Assessment
Evaluate whether you have adequate resources to reach validation before reserves deplete. Seeds with big reserves can germinate in shade; seeds with small reserves must germinate in perfect conditions.
Questions to Ask
- Can I reach a validation milestone within my runway?
- What's my minimum viable milestone?
- If I fail to hit that milestone, do I have enough reserves to pivot once?
- Am I optimizing for survival or speed?
Outputs
- Runway calculation
- Milestone staging plan
- Risk buffer assessment
Dormancy Exit Readiness
Determine if you are personally/organizationally ready to germinate. Some seeds require cold stratification before they can sprout - are you ready?
Questions to Ask
- Do I understand this problem deeply from experience (not research)?
- Have I identified why previous attempts failed and why mine will succeed?
- Do I have the skills to build V1?
- Can I articulate the core insight in one sentence?
Outputs
- Founder readiness assessment
- Skill gap identification
- Core insight statement