The Shore Crab Decision
A framework for deciding which customers, markets, or products to pursue based on value per unit effort, inspired by how shore crabs select mussel sizes.
A framework for deciding which customers, markets, or products to pursue based on value per unit effort, inspired by how shore crabs select mussel sizes. The framework calculates efficiency ratios and determines optimal portfolio mix based on abundance.
When to Use The Shore Crab Decision
Use when evaluating multiple customer segments, market opportunities, or product investments to determine optimal resource allocation. Especially valuable when facing budget constraints and needing to prioritize.
How to Apply
Calculate Value Per Unit Effort
For each option, calculate: Value = (Annual revenue × Lifetime years × Margin × Close rate). Effort = (Search cost + Sales cost + Onboarding cost). Ratio = Value / Effort.
Outputs
- Value/Effort ratio for each segment
Rank Options
Order all options by ratio from highest to lowest.
Outputs
- Ranked list of opportunities
Apply Diet Selection Rule
Include in 'diet' if ratio > current portfolio average. Exclude if ratio < current portfolio average.
Outputs
- Go/no-go decision for each segment
Adjust for Abundance
If high-value targets are abundant: Be selective (only pursue top tier). If high-value targets are scarce: Broaden diet (pursue mid-tier).
Outputs
- Final optimized portfolio allocation