Framework
Five Survival Checkpoints
TL;DR
Early growth isn't continuous - it's a series of discrete survival gates.
Early growth isn't continuous - it's a series of discrete survival gates. You must pass all five or die. Each checkpoint has pass conditions, measurement methods, failure modes, and allocation guidance if failing.
When to Use Five Survival Checkpoints
Quarterly assessment of early-stage company health. Use to identify which survival gate you're at and whether you're passing.
How to Apply
1
Product-Market Fit (Months 6-18)
Can you find 10-50 customers who desperately want your product?
Questions to Ask
- Is organic word-of-mouth growing?
- Is NPS >50?
- Is 90-day retention >70%?
Outputs
- If failing: 80% to customer conversations, 20% to product iteration
2
Founder-Product Separation (Months 12-24)
Can someone besides the founder sell/deliver the product?
Questions to Ask
- Can team close deals without you?
- Can they handle support?
- Do documented processes exist?
Outputs
- If failing: 60% to documentation, 20% to training, 20% to process building
3
Unit Economics Viability (Months 18-30)
Can you acquire and retain customers profitably? LTV > 3× CAC minimum.
Questions to Ask
- Is LTV/CAC >3?
- Is payback period <12 months?
- Does the math work at 10× volume?
Outputs
- If failing: 50% retention, 30% acquisition efficiency, 20% pricing experiments
4
Team Stability (Months 24-36)
Can you retain key employees? <20% annual attrition target.
Questions to Ask
- Are key employees staying >2 years?
- Is culture coherent?
- Would 70%+ recommend working here?
Outputs
- If failing: 40% compensation, 30% culture, 30% hiring process
5
Minimum Viable Scale (Months 30-48)
Can you reach scale where fixed costs are covered? Path to $5-10M ARR visible.
Questions to Ask
- Is MoM growth >15%?
- When do you hit $5M ARR?
- Is gross margin >60% (SaaS) or >40% (marketplace)?
Outputs
- If failing: 50% growth, 30% retention, 20% fundraising