Door 2: SURVIVE 2.1
Crisis Response Decision
"Revenue collapsed, market crashed, or a sudden external shock has put the business in survival mode — what do I do?"
What you'll get
A clear HIBERNATE / PIVOT / EXIT decision with a confidence score, immediate 72-hour action plan, and the specific conditions that would change the recommendation.
When to use this
Revenue has dropped 30%+ in a quarter, your market has cratered, a major customer or funding source has disappeared, or an external shock (pandemic, regulatory, technological) has fundamentally changed your operating environment.
The process
1
Metabolic Triage: Temporary or Permanent?
Questions to answer
How to do this
The single most important question. Hibernation only works for temporary scarcity — bears hibernate through winter because spring returns. If winter is permanent, hibernation is slow death. Assess whether this is a cyclical downturn (recession, pandemic disruption, temporary supply shock) or a structural market shift (technology obsolescence, permanent demand migration, regulatory elimination).
What you'll have when done
- Classification: TEMPORARY (cyclical/recoverable) or PERMANENT (structural/terminal)
- Confidence level: High (>80% sure) / Medium (50-80%) / Low (<50%)
If PERMANENT with high confidence → skip to Step 6 (Regeneration vs Reinvention). If TEMPORARY or uncertain → continue to Step 2.
2
Reserve Reality Check
Questions to answer
How to do this
Calculate what you actually have versus what you need. Arctic ground squirrels assess body fat before committing to 9-month hibernation — insufficient reserves mean death mid-dormancy. Use the biological reserve formula: (Monthly Hibernation Burn × Estimated Duration + 6-Month Restart Burn) × 3. The 3x multiplier accounts for duration uncertainty, emergence costs, and the fact that restart is more expensive than dormancy.
What you'll have when done
- Current runway in months
- Minimum hibernation burn rate
- Reserve adequacy ratio (reserves / 3x requirement)
- Reserve gap (if any)
If reserve adequacy ratio < 0.5 → hibernation likely unviable, consider aggressive pivot or managed exit. If ratio 0.5-1.0 → conditional, need to find additional reserves. If ratio > 1.0 → reserves sufficient, continue.
3
Junco Risk Calibration
Questions to answer
How to do this
Juncos switch from risk-averse to risk-seeking foraging when energy reserves drop below their survival threshold. Your risk posture should shift the same way. Calculate your reserves relative to your survival threshold (minimum runway to reach next milestone: funding round, profitability, product launch).
What you'll have when done
- Risk posture: CONSERVATIVE (reserves > threshold + 6 months), MIXED (threshold + 3-6 months), or AGGRESSIVE (< threshold + 3 months)
- Strategic implication: Conservative = optimize for expected value, test incrementally. Aggressive = take high-variance bets that could save you.
If AGGRESSIVE → factor into Step 5 decision (may need bold pivot rather than cautious hibernation). If CONSERVATIVE → hibernation remains viable option.
4
Quantitative Scorecard
Questions to answer
How to do this
Score your hibernation viability across five dimensions on a 100-point scale. This forces rigor and reveals which specific areas are weak.
What you'll have when done
- Total score (0-100)
- Per-dimension scores revealing weak spots
- Decision threshold: 75-100 = HIBERNATE, 50-74 = CONDITIONAL, 25-49 = PIVOT RECOMMENDED, 0-24 = EXIT
If Step 1 score < 10/25 → DO NOT HIBERNATE regardless of total. If total 75+ → proceed to Step 7 (action plan for hibernation). If total 25-74 → proceed to Step 5 and 6.
5
Restart Capability Protection Assessment
Questions to answer
How to do this
Emergence is more dangerous than dormancy. The Yellowstone grizzly that dies in spring — not mid-winter — is the cautionary tale. You must assess whether you can protect the capabilities needed to restart.
What you'll have when done
- Restart capability: STRONG (4-5 yes) / CONDITIONAL (2-3 yes) / WEAK (0-1 yes)
- Critical protection requirements list
If WEAK restart capability → hibernation will likely fail even with adequate reserves. Consider pivot or managed exit.
6
Regeneration vs. Reinvention Matrix
Questions to answer
How to do this
Plot your position on two axes. Vertical: Root System Strength — are your core capabilities (talent, brand, customer relationships, institutional knowledge) intact? Horizontal: Market Viability — does demand for your category still exist? This produces four quadrants with clear prescriptions.
What you'll have when done
- Quadrant placement and strategic prescription
- Strong Roots + Viable Market → REGENERATE (fast, cheap, likely to succeed — LEGO, Marvel, Apple pattern)
- Strong Roots + Dead Market → TRANSPLANT capabilities to new market (Fujifilm pattern: chemistry expertise → healthcare)
- Damaged Roots + Viable Market → ACQUIRE new capabilities or merge with stronger player
- Damaged Roots + Dead Market → EXIT (managed wind-down, not slow bleeding)
This step produces the final strategic direction for non-hibernation scenarios.
7
72-Hour Action Plan
Questions to answer
How to do this
Regardless of HIBERNATE / PIVOT / EXIT decision, the first 72 hours determine whether execution succeeds. Biology is unforgiving about speed: the bear that hesitates at the den entrance gets caught in the storm.
What you'll have when done
- 24-hour action list (3-5 items)
- Communication sequence with key messages per stakeholder
- Immediate cost elimination list
- Protected assets list
- Quantitative emergence criteria
Execute. Review at 7 days, 30 days, and 90 days.
✓ Framework complete