Coalition Stability Monitor
A monitoring framework with leading indicators to track coalition health and intervene before collapse.
A monitoring framework with leading indicators to track coalition health and intervene before collapse. Includes monthly metrics, quarterly stability scores, intervention protocols, and exit procedures with post-defection recovery guidance.
When to Use Coalition Stability Monitor
Use after coalition formation to continuously monitor health and stability. Implement monthly metric tracking, conduct quarterly stability reviews, and trigger interventions when scores decline below thresholds.
How to Apply
Track Monthly Stability Metrics
Monitor four key indicators: (1) Reciprocity Balance: Benefit/Contribution ratio, healthy 0.8-1.2. (2) Communication Frequency: Weekly executive, daily manager contact is healthy. (3) Conflict Resolution Speed: <2 weeks at working level is healthy. (4) Trust Indicators: Sensitive information sharing openness.
Questions to Ask
- What is the benefit/contribution ratio for each party?
- How frequently are executives and managers communicating?
- How long do conflicts take to resolve?
- Are parties sharing sensitive information freely?
Outputs
- Four monthly metric scores
Conduct Quarterly Stability Review
Rate each metric 1-5: 5=Excellent (strengthening), 3=Acceptable (stable), 1=Poor (deteriorating). Calculate average: >4.0 = Thriving, 3.0-4.0 = Stable, 2.0-3.0 = At Risk, <2.0 = Failing.
Outputs
- Quarterly stability score (1-5)
- Trend direction
Implement Interventions if Score <2.5
Immediate actions: Executive summit (face-to-face), Reciprocity audit (transparent contribution/benefit review), Grievance airing (safe space), Recommitment or exit decision. Recovery timeline: Month 1-2 identify imbalances, Month 3-6 implement rebalancing, Month 6 reassess.
Outputs
- Intervention plan
- Recovery timeline
Execute Exit Protocol if Score <2.0
Assess exit severity: Type 1 Gradual Decline (12-18 month exit), Type 2 Acute Crisis (6-9 month exit), Type 3 Betrayal (3-6 month exit). Execute phased exit: Internal Decision (Month 1), Partner Notification (Month 1-2), Asset Disentanglement (Month 2-6), Formal Separation (Month 4-6), Relationship Management (Month 6-12).
Outputs
- Exit type assessment
- Exit timeline and plan
Assess Recovery if Defection Occurred
Evaluate severity: Minor Violation (75-85% recovery probability), Major Violation (30-45%), Betrayal (<15%). Check five feasibility questions: Was defection intentional? Did defector acknowledge? Was restitution made? Is strategic alignment still valid? Do both parties want recovery?
Questions to Ask
- Was defection intentional or forced by circumstances?
- Did defector explicitly acknowledge the violation?
- Has defector made costly restitution?
- Is underlying strategic alignment still valid?
- Do both parties genuinely want to recover?
Outputs
- Recovery feasibility assessment
- Recommended approach: Recovery attempt or Exit