Black Swan
Named by Nassim Nicholas Taleb after the discovery of black swans in Australia, which overturned the European assumption that all swans were white
A highly improbable event with three characteristics: it is unpredictable, carries massive impact, and after the fact we concoct explanations that make it appear less random than it was.
Biological Context
Mass extinctions are black swan events—unpredicted catastrophes that reshape life on Earth. The Chicxulub asteroid that killed the dinosaurs, volcanic winters, and pandemic outbreaks all qualify. Evolution cannot anticipate black swans, only build systems robust enough to survive them.
Business Application
Black swan events dominate business outcomes: market crashes, breakthrough innovations, regulatory changes. Planning for the average ignores the events that matter most. Build systems that survive rare disasters rather than optimizing for normal conditions.